Wednesday’s confirmation of Musiliu
Obanikoro as minister by the senate has given
the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) a 2-1 lead
over the All Progressives Congress (APC) in
the series of duel tagged “battle royale” ahead
of the March 28 presidential election.
APC had won Round One of the bout in
November 2014 when it successfully resisted
PDP’s attempt to remove Aminu Tambuwal as
the speaker of the house of representatives
following his defection from the ruling party to
APC.
Suleiman Abbah, the inspector general of
police, had declared that Tambuwal was no
longer speaker because of his defection,
promptly withdrawing the speaker’s security
aides.
Initial attempts by Tambuwal to reconvene the
house were resisted by the police, which
teargassed and barricaded the national
assembly complex, although some lawmakers
successfully scaled the gates to gain entrance.
With APC carrying a one goal advantage into
the general election initially slated for February
14 to 28, 2015, Sambo Dasuki, the national
security adviser, landed an upper cut on behalf
of the PDP – insisting that the dates for the
elections were not realistic.
He had first said, in far away London in
January, that the inability of the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC) to
distribute the biometric voter cards to over 25
million Nigerians meant it was no longer
realistic to hold the elections as scheduled.
However, he later added that the ongoing
operations against Boko Haram in the north-
east meant there would be shortage of security
forces for the elections.
Despite protests by APC both locally and
internationally, INEC moved the elections to
March 28-April 11, barely seven days to the
polls, thereby giving the PDP victory in Round
Two.
Tied at 1-1, the next round of the super
heavyweight bout moved to the renomination of
Musiliu Obanikoro, a prominent PDP figure in
the south-west, as minister by President
Goodluck Jonathan.
In what was a clear case of muscle-flexing
before the general election, the APC vowed to
block his confirmation by the senate because
of allegations that he helped in rigging the 2014
governorship election in Ekiti state.
Whistle-blowing website, Sahara Reporters,
had reported that it was in possession of an
audio tape recorded by a military officer and
appearing to prove that key PDP figures in the
south-west, including Obanikoro, colluded to
use the military to manipulate the election in
favour of the PDP.
APC senators promptly moved to halt the
confirmation of Obanikoro as minister, but at
the second attempt, it appeared the PDP had
done its home work properly, blocking all
attempts by the opposition lawmakers to stall
the screening and confirmation.
Obanikoro, himself a former senator, was just
asked to take a bow and go – a privilege for
former senators – rather than face any rigorous
questioning.
Although the PDP is leading 2-1, there are at
least five more rounds to go – the fourth round
being the fate of Attahiru Jega, a professor of
political science, who is a subject of intense
speculation over his tenure.
PDP supporters have been very vocal in
canvassing his removal on the suspicion that
he is working for the opposition, while APC has
warned Jonathan against removing him before
the elections.
Jega’s tenure ends in June, but this has not
stopped claims and counterclaims over the
legality of asking him to proceed on terminal
leave three months to the end of his tenure –
which would be a day after the presidential
election.
No electoral boss has been removed in the
middle of an election in the history of Nigeria,
and President Jonathan has said he has no
plans to create that record.
In Round Five, the debate over a presidential
debate is also raging. While PDP surprisingly
wants a debate this time around – having
boycotted all debates with the leading
opposition parties since 1999 – the APC is
surprisingly shying away, alleging that the
questions will be leaked in advance to the
ruling party.
The party also said because Muhammadu
Buhari, its presidential candidate had been
subjected to personal attacks in recent times,
there was no chance of a debate.
There are no indications that Buhari will take
part in the debate, meaning the PDP may lose
this round.
The use of PVCs and card readers for the 2015
elections will decide the Round Six of the bout.
The PDP has openly voiced its opposition to
the smart card and electronic devices – which
are presumed to be rigging-proof – while APC
has been supporting it.
Cases are already in court to stop INEC from
using them for the elections, but from all
indications, INEC may go ahead with its plan
despite the hiccups and challenged faced at the
test-run on Saturday, March 7.
In the seventh round, the possibility of the
deployment of soldiers to provide security on
election day is also a big bone of contention.
Supporters of PDP are rooting for military
presence, but the opposition is completely
against it, alleging that soldiers may be used to
intimidate its own supporters as well as rig the
elections in favour of the ruling party.
The Ekiti audio tape saga has further given the
opposition the ammunition to oppose military
presence, but it seems from all indications that
soldiers would be deployed for the polls.
The final round of the bout – and the only one
that REALLY matters because it is winner-
takes-all – will hold on March 28. That is
when the presidential election will take place.
Goodluck Jonathan vs Muhammadu Buhari.
Incumbent vs Challenger. Do not adjust your
set…
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