Boko Haram, as they are known, seem to have
had a long disagreement within the Jihadi
movements in Africa about Abubakar Shekau’s
depth of knowledge. Many of the Jihadis,
especially students of late Mohammed Yusuf,
Shekau’s precursor, were reported to have
opted out of the movement on account of his
hastiness. Some of these erstwhile members of
the sect are reported to be currently fighting
alongside with the Islamic State (IS) in Libya,
or in other turfs — in their new obsession of
dying as martyrs instead of co-existing in a
multicultural society.
Boko Haram’s widely reported allegiance (or
Bay’ah) to the Islamic State is said to be the
result of a long drawn deliberation within and
outside the group on its ideology. “The sect has
expressed support to IS in the past but not
Bay’ah in this formal sense, as Islam
prescribed,” says a source with links to the
insurgents in Nigeria. According to this
insurgent, it is not a question of IS accepting
their overtures or not “as long as Muslims
pledged allegiance to a leader, he must accept
it. In fact, it was long overdue.” What this also
means is Abubakar Bagdadi will henceforth
take decision for the insurgents. “Shekau’s
self-governance has ended on Saturday, the
7th of March 2015,” said the insurgent.
Sources knowledgeable with the activities of
the ruthless insurgents in Nigeria hinted that
what we are seeing is a methodological
transformation of Boko Haram into a well-
organised terror and propaganda machine that
may not only appeal to the deprived in society
but even the well-off and people from different
nationalities. Baghdadi may choose to even
change the Imam in Nigeria if he so wishes or
send permanent emissaries or teachers to
guide what is now the local Boko Haram Shura,
said multiple sources.
Insiders insist that “the emissaries by Bagdadi
are already here with us, they are making a lot
of changes that I cannot share but we have
started seeing the impact of our Bay’ah”. But
just what is Bay’ah and the implications to the
four countries fighting Boko Haram? Bay’ah,
according to some Sunni Islamic scholars, can
only be offered to the leader of the Muslims.
Once allegiance is offered, as in the case of
Boko Haram to IS, it is accepted because the
leader that is being offered Bay’ah assumes
total and absolute authority over his subjects,
except these subjects were to discover that the
actions of the leader contradicted their kind of
beliefs.
Many commentators have maintained that Boko
Haram is on its knees, therefore, it is reaching
out to IS to reinforce its bonds with other
groups and individuals in the region, and save
itself from drowning. Yes, there have been
intensified military attacks against Boko Haram
by the Nigerian Army and the multinational
forces but to assume that the international
borders in north-east Nigeria that overlooks
three countries — Cameroon, Chad and Niger
Republic — areno longer leaky is far-fetched.
Even our weak institutions to guard against
leakages are a cause of concern. Investigations
revealed that there may still be several
unmanned pathways from Cameroon, Chad and
Nigeria to the Northern Mandara mountains, the
new fortress of Boko Haram resistance.
A trusted inside assessment revealed that there
is a difference between taking back Boko
Haram territories and defeating the group’s
terror network with its roots in many parts of
the region. While one aspect of the problem can
be defeated on the battle field, the other aspect
requires deep, strategic and consistent
institutional framework to be able to contain.
Another cause of apprehension is: both Chad
and Niger that carried out a joint offensive
against Boko Haram on Sunday share direct
borderlines with Libya — IS most powerful arm
outside of Iraq and Syria. However, many have
dismissed the alliance since Boko Haram and
IS are both confronted with large-scale military
attacks. But IS is not only in Iraq, Syria or
Libya, it’s an ideology that may be found in
unexpected places.
There are also growing concern of Boko Haram
capabilities, despite the offensive against it. On
Saturday, its fighters moved into Sueram
village in Cameroon, with tanks and pickups
vans. Sueram, according to Chief Bisong
Etahoben, a respected journalist in Cameroon,
is a mere 17 kilometers from Fotokol, the
location of Boko Haram’s most devastating
attack on Cameroon in February.
Analyst argues that with deep seated distrust
amongst the multinational forces and the
absence of a command structure to streamline
their activities, it becomes a major challenge to
effectively police the expansive border
territories. Moreover, we are referring to
borderlines that host same ethnic groups, living
across two imperceptible boundaries. If people
can escape sophisticated airport security
checks from the US, Europe and Asia en route
Syria and Iraq from Turkey, how difficult will it
be for people from Mali, North Africa and
Europe to troop to poorly manned borders, in a
poverty stricken region, being policed by one of
the most ill-equipped and corrupt officials from
the four hard-hit countries in the region?
Clearly, there has been progress in taking back
Boko Haram territories by the militaries of
Chad, Cameroun, Niger and more especially
Nigeria but there has not been any headway in
finding nearly a 1000 known prisoners,
including over 200 girls, abducted about a year
ago. For now, many in West Africa have every
cause to be anxious by the new Boko Haram
and IS alliance. In the absence of any
intelligence breakthrough that may reveal the
slightest clue on the following: who are Boko
Haram’s current leaders? How many are they?
What are their names? Where are they located?
How are decisions taken within the group?
What is their actual source of funding? How
many cells do they operate outside the main
war combatants? People in the region can be
certain of more bloody surprises ahead.
If our intelligence community for years were
repeatedly confused about whether or not
Shekau was alive, his whereabouts, and were
misled into believing bogus ceasefires and false
alarms over the release of abducted girls, how
can people trust the same security community
with their borders? Boko Haram claims it is
retreating for weeks to the Northern Mandara
area at a time we are hearing victory songs by
our military in areas far away from Boko
Haram’s main command and control theatre.
Salkida, a conflict analyst, was the only
journalist had contact with Boko Haram
leaders. He can be reached on Twitter:
@contactSalkida
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